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NKE, ADDYY, UA...
3/21/2019 14:03pm
Fly Intel: What to watch in Nike's earnings report

Nike (NKE) is scheduled to report results of its third fiscal quarter after the market close on Thursday, March 21, with a conference call scheduled for 5:00 pm ET. What to watch for:

1. GUIDANCE: Along with its last report, Nike guided for high single digit revenue growth, which compared to analysts' current consensus of $9.61B. Nike previously raised its fiscal 2019 revenue growth view to the high single digit range from the previous guidance of growth in the mid to high single digit range, which it backed last quarter. Analysts currently expect Nike to report FY19 revenue of $39.32B. JPMorgan analyst Matthew Boss said his fieldwork in Q3 points to top- and bottom-line momentum. Morgan Stanley analyst Lauren Cassel said she expects an EPS beat and a high-single digit constant currency revenue growth forecast for FY20 coming from the company. Wedbush analyst Christopher Svezia believes  Nike's Q3 results should once again demonstrate the company's "global marketing and product genius."

2. CONSUMER DIRECT OFFENSE: Last year, Nike announced the "Consumer Direct Offense," a new alignment that "allows Nike to better serve the consumer personally." As part of the new alignment, the company will "deeply" serve customers in 12 key cities, namely New York, London, Shanghai, Beijing, Los Angeles, Tokyo, Paris, Berlin, Mexico City, Barcelona, Seoul, and Milan. Nike has said that the changes will result in an overall reduction of roughly 2% of its global workforce. Needham analyst Rick Patel said the recent Pricing Playbook, which analyzes data on the company's 7K products weekly, suggests a "strong increase" in average selling prices and fewer discounts in men's footwear, along with strength in men's apparel category driven by "higher initial prices points and a lower discount offered on sale items." Patel said he views the data as indicative that Nike's Q3 results will reflect its "healthy business."

3. INCREASED COMPETITION AND PROMOTIONAL ACTIVITY: Nike is under pressure from competitors including traditional players Under Armour (UA, UAA) and adidas (ADDYY), as well as Amazon (AMZN), which now has private-label sportswear available on its site. Morgan Stanley analyst Lauren Cassel said adidas' Q4 sales ex-Reebok were notably softer in North America on a constant currency basis, who read this as a sign that its share losses are accelerating. Jefferies analyst Randal Konik said his January webscrapes showed that Under Armour's percentage of product on discount was down for the tenth month in a row year-over-year, while adidas's percentage was up for the eleventh month in a row. Konik said Nike continued to dominate adidas in running in the U.S.

4. SHOE SPLIT: Zion Williamson, a Duke University freshman center who plays for the Duke Blue Devils, suffered a mild sprain to his right knee after his sneaker split in half 36 seconds into a game between Duke and North Carolina in February. Williamson was wearing the Nike PG 2.5 basketball shoe when he was injured, according to ESPN. In a statement, Nike said "The quality and performance of our products are of utmost importance. While this is an isolated occurrence, we are working to identify the issue." Oppenheimer analyst Brian Nagel said that "any lasting damage to the  company and its shares will prove minimal."

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